{"_id":"577893a9e577590e000e3e1f","project":"55773a5ba042551900b002cb","user":{"_id":"546d17e2eb9cfd1400dd4529","username":"","name":"World Triathlon"},"__v":0,"initVersion":{"_id":"55773a5ba042551900b002ce","version":"1"},"createdAt":"2016-07-03T04:25:13.013Z","changelog":[],"body":"Inspired by [Flora Duffy's magnificent solo bike breakaway](http://www.triathlon.org/news/article/duffy_captures_first_time_wts_gold_in_stockholm) in the [2016 ITU World Triathlon Stockholm race](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/40629) I decided to look for other instances of solo bike breakaways in WTS history.\n\nFirst we need to define what we mean by a solo breakaway on the bike. For simplicity I have defined it as an athlete arriving into the second transition at least **10 seconds** ahead of the second athlete. Of course this analysis won't tell us how that breakaway occurred, i.e. was it a solo 40km ride or a last-lap breakaway but for the purposes of this analysis it will provide a starting point for further analysis through watching race replays on [triathlonlive.tv](https://www.triathlonlive.tv) to gain the required context.\n\nThe [following simple PHP script](https://gist.github.com/garethtdavies/b35ad5164d4f39d2009a3e35328f02d9) was used to generate the results of the analysis using the [Triathlon Events API](https://developers.triathlon.org/docs/events-api-overview) endpoints.\n\nThe results of the script show that a *successful* (as defined above) solo breakaway has only occurred **7 times** in WTS history. Here is the full list including event name, athlete name the lead they had off the bike in seconds and their eventual finishing position.\n[block:parameters]\n{\n  \"data\": {\n    \"h-0\": \"Event Name\",\n    \"h-1\": \"Athlete Name\",\n    \"h-2\": \"Difference\",\n    \"h-3\": \"Finish Position\",\n    \"0-0\": \"[2009 London](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/20331)\",\n    \"1-0\": \"[2012 Auckland](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/13591)\",\n    \"3-0\": \"[2013 Kitzbuehel](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/17950)\",\n    \"4-0\": \"[2013 Stockholm](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/18839)\",\n    \"2-0\": \"[2013 Kitzbuehel](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/17951)\",\n    \"5-0\": \"[2016 Abu Dhabi](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/40615)\",\n    \"6-0\": \"[2016 Stockholm](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/40629)\",\n    \"0-1\": \"Bruno Pais\",\n    \"1-1\": \"Kris Gemmell\",\n    \"2-1\": \"Alistair Brownlee\",\n    \"3-1\": \"Jodie Stimpson\",\n    \"4-1\": \"Alistair Brownlee\",\n    \"5-1\": \"Alessandro Fabian\",\n    \"6-1\": \"Flora Duffy\",\n    \"0-2\": \"24\",\n    \"1-2\": \"59\",\n    \"2-2\": \"60\",\n    \"3-2\": \"42\",\n    \"4-2\": \"21\",\n    \"5-2\": \"12\",\n    \"6-2\": \"24\",\n    \"0-3\": \"DQ\",\n    \"1-3\": \"20\",\n    \"2-3\": \"1\",\n    \"3-3\": \"1\",\n    \"4-3\": \"1\",\n    \"5-3\": \"13\",\n    \"6-3\": \"1\"\n  },\n  \"cols\": 4,\n  \"rows\": 7\n}\n[/block]\nOf the 7 times that a successful solo breakaway has occurred it resulted in a race win on 4 of those occasions. Notably the unique 2013 [Kitzbuehel race](http://www.triathlon.org/news/article/2013_kitzbuehel_elite_mens_post_race) which is included in both the Elite Men and Elite Women's variants featured a mountain climb which caused large separations between all the athletes.\n\nThrough a simple variation of the script it would be possible to determine the occurrence and resulting success of larger group sizes.","slug":"wts-solo-bike-breakaway-analysis","title":"WTS Solo Bike Breakaway Analysis"}

WTS Solo Bike Breakaway Analysis


Inspired by [Flora Duffy's magnificent solo bike breakaway](http://www.triathlon.org/news/article/duffy_captures_first_time_wts_gold_in_stockholm) in the [2016 ITU World Triathlon Stockholm race](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/40629) I decided to look for other instances of solo bike breakaways in WTS history. First we need to define what we mean by a solo breakaway on the bike. For simplicity I have defined it as an athlete arriving into the second transition at least **10 seconds** ahead of the second athlete. Of course this analysis won't tell us how that breakaway occurred, i.e. was it a solo 40km ride or a last-lap breakaway but for the purposes of this analysis it will provide a starting point for further analysis through watching race replays on [triathlonlive.tv](https://www.triathlonlive.tv) to gain the required context. The [following simple PHP script](https://gist.github.com/garethtdavies/b35ad5164d4f39d2009a3e35328f02d9) was used to generate the results of the analysis using the [Triathlon Events API](https://developers.triathlon.org/docs/events-api-overview) endpoints. The results of the script show that a *successful* (as defined above) solo breakaway has only occurred **7 times** in WTS history. Here is the full list including event name, athlete name the lead they had off the bike in seconds and their eventual finishing position. [block:parameters] { "data": { "h-0": "Event Name", "h-1": "Athlete Name", "h-2": "Difference", "h-3": "Finish Position", "0-0": "[2009 London](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/20331)", "1-0": "[2012 Auckland](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/13591)", "3-0": "[2013 Kitzbuehel](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/17950)", "4-0": "[2013 Stockholm](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/18839)", "2-0": "[2013 Kitzbuehel](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/17951)", "5-0": "[2016 Abu Dhabi](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/40615)", "6-0": "[2016 Stockholm](https://triathlonlive.tv/video/40629)", "0-1": "Bruno Pais", "1-1": "Kris Gemmell", "2-1": "Alistair Brownlee", "3-1": "Jodie Stimpson", "4-1": "Alistair Brownlee", "5-1": "Alessandro Fabian", "6-1": "Flora Duffy", "0-2": "24", "1-2": "59", "2-2": "60", "3-2": "42", "4-2": "21", "5-2": "12", "6-2": "24", "0-3": "DQ", "1-3": "20", "2-3": "1", "3-3": "1", "4-3": "1", "5-3": "13", "6-3": "1" }, "cols": 4, "rows": 7 } [/block] Of the 7 times that a successful solo breakaway has occurred it resulted in a race win on 4 of those occasions. Notably the unique 2013 [Kitzbuehel race](http://www.triathlon.org/news/article/2013_kitzbuehel_elite_mens_post_race) which is included in both the Elite Men and Elite Women's variants featured a mountain climb which caused large separations between all the athletes. Through a simple variation of the script it would be possible to determine the occurrence and resulting success of larger group sizes.